BP Admits Renewables Will Grow Faster Than Natural Gas in Next Two Decades
One of the largest fossil fuel companies in the world has the data to back up the rise in renewable energy that must of us expect in the future.
According to BP's Energy Outlook 2035, renewable sources likes solar and wind will grow at a faster rate than natural gas over the next two decades. Renewables are slated to grow by an average of 6.4 percent per year, while natural gas will only increase by 1.9 percent each year.
In 21 years, the world will get 14 percent of its power from renewable energy, compared to the 5 percent it received in 2012. BP predicts the European Union will be especially green by 2035 with 32 percent renewables.
On a global scale, carbon-free sources—renewables, hydro and nuclear—will combine to provide 37 percent of the world's power by 2035. That's a five percent increase from 2012.
“Including biofuels, renewables are expected to have a higher share of primary energy than nuclear by 2025," the report reads.
Graphic credit: BP
On their own, renewable sources will overtake nuclear by 2028. Meanwhile, coal is expected to drop from 43 percent in 2012 to 37 percent in 2035.
Even a BP executive seemed mildly enthused about competition within the energy sector.
"[The report] highlights the power of competition and market forces in unlocking technology and innovation to meet the world’s energy needs," BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said. "These factors make us optimistic for the world’s energy future.”
Despite the predicted rise in renewable energy deployment, BP says greenhouse emissions will rise by nearly one-third during the same period. Shale is slated to grow during that period, but not enough to offset emissions.
"The case for shale gas is crumbling," Tony Bosworth, Friends of the Earth energy campaigner, told The Guardian. "Experts say it won't lead to cheaper fuel bills, and now BP says it won't cut carbon emissions either."
Visit EcoWatch’s RENEWABLES page for more related news on this topic.
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A scenic view of West Papua. Reza Fakhrudin / Pexels
By Arkilaus Kladit
My name is Arkilaus Kladit. I'm from the Knasaimos-Tehit tribe in South Sorong Regency, West Papua Province, Indonesia. For decades my tribe has been fighting to protect our forests from outsiders who want to log it or clear it for palm oil. For my people, the forest is our mother and our best friend. Everything we need to survive comes from the forest: food, medicines, building materials, and there are many sacred sites in the forest.
<p>We have been taught for generations about how to maintain a good relationship with the forest. If it is cut down, it will be the same as cutting down our lives. This has been critical for us during this Covid pandemic because, with the shortage of rice, we have been relying on our traditional staple food, sago, that comes from the forest. And we have gone further by harvesting it to provide food for the surrounding area.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzU0ODg4OS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMjc0MjUzMX0.ryirsbiRERuALoNk4rGlvrhXBacs0wi90ZXnMa8jKuo/img.jpg?width=980" id="6aa7c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="065f0a6f305cacc8928f8ee694cefa25" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Map of the Knasaimos traditional lands.
<p>The first threat to our forest was in 1988-89 when I was young. The government wanted to make a transmigration scheme settlement in our area but our elders rejected it because we were worried a lot of new people would harm the forest. Then in the early 2000s companies came wanting to log the valuable trees in our forest. After some years of struggle, we saw them off in 2005 but only after they did some damage to our forest.</p><p>The most recent threat is from oil palm. We heard news reports in 2012 there was an oil palm company going into a neighboring village. The news was quite alarming. Our tribe was sad. We had heard about thousands of hectares being cleared for oil palm plantations in Merauke and Sorong Districts. We thought that if oil palm is planted in a neighboring village, it is certain that the forests around our villages, Sira and Manggroholo, could also be under threat. But we stood firm on protecting our forest for our children and grandchildren. Our people consistently oppose oil palm, because we realize that our economic, customary and cultural lives depend heavily on the forest.</p><p>After our earlier fight with the illegal loggers, we decided in 2006 that we wanted to gain recognition for our customary forests. What has interested me most was getting the rights of the people to manage their forest. We worked with our Non-Government Organization friends, including Bentara and Greenpeace, to do participatory mapping of our own village lands and mark the boundary of all 81,446 hectares of our tribal lands. It is our custom to pass down from generation to generation where the boundaries of our forests are. Everything is collective, or is inherited collectively through the clans; it comes from our ancestors.</p>
<p>In 2008 we made a declaration to reject logging and palm oil. We invited the Regent and local Parliament to tell them that our area is small, if these forests are cut down, where do we go then? Where will we find wood to build our house? Where will we go to make our gardens? Where do we go to get medicines? If forests in these two villages are cut down, where will we move to?</p><p>So then we began the process of getting the recognition for our customary forests so that it will not be continually disturbed by logging licenses or permits for oil palm plantations. In 2014, after a long struggle, we had success with Village Forest permits for 3,545 hectares of customary forests of the two villages Mangroholo and Sira. We celebrated securing permits from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry as part of the government's social forestry program. We now have the legal rights to face the threat of illegal deforestation, oil palm planting that damages the environment.</p><p><span></span>A good example of how different it is now with the Village Forest permit. One day when we were patrolling in our forest we found merbau or ironwood trees (<em>Intsia bijuga</em>) had been illegally cut. Merbau is one of the main trees targeted by the illegal loggers. We caught the people doing this and issued them with a customary fine of Rp40 million ($2,700).</p><p>As well, since we obtained the status of Village Forest and we manage the forest ourselves, we are more organized in using Non Timber Forest Products (NTFP) such as damar (tree resin), agarwood, and sago, from a big palm that grows in our swamp forests. But our people have always made use of forests sustainably by taking forest products as needed. Especially with sago we have done a lot of work to turn it into a small enterprise that makes a good income for the village so we can pay things like school fees. We have had training, received new processing machines to speed up production, and help with local marketing to sell what we make. We have been providing food for the local region during Covid as the local government was buying our sago and giving it to the people. We are proud to make some money from our protected forest using our customary management without harming it. The forest is still here tall and strong.</p>
<p>But we still have a long way to go. We are now fighting for the recognition of the whole Knasaimos tribal area of 81,446 hectares as Customary Forest. We were very happy in 2018 when the Governor of West Papua Dominggus Mandacan made his <a href="https://www.idhsustainabletrade.com/uploaded/2018/12/MANOKWARI-DECLARATION-2018.pdf" target="_blank">commitment</a> to make 70% of West Papua Province protected areas. For us it means the Governor is fighting alongside us.</p><p>For the future we hope that the regent of our District, Mr. Samsudin, will soon issue a regional regulation that recognizes Knasaimos rights and forest, and that the Ministry of Environment and Forestry will support our application for a Customary Forest permit through the government Social Forestry Scheme so we can be on the frontline in supporting the government to protect Papua's forests.</p><p>I hope that every village in the Knasaimos customary area can experience the customary forest program to protect the future of our mother, the forest, and the rights to life of communities in Papua. Getting rights to forests in one's own area is the key to protecting the forest and community-based forest management. That is our aspiration, and this will make me very happy.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/08/i-am-fighting-for-my-tribes-forest-it-gives-us-food-culture-and-life-commentary/" target="_blank">Mongabay</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Everyone overthinks their lives or options every once in a while. Some people, however, can't stop the wheels and halt their train of thoughts. Peter Griffith / Getty Images
By Farah Aqel
Overthinkers are people who are buried in their own obsessive thoughts. Imagine being in a large maze where each turn leads into an even deeper and knottier tangle of catastrophic, distressing events — that is what it feels like to them when they think about the issues that confront them.
<p>Everyone overthinks their lives or options every once in a while. Some people, however, can't stop the wheels and halt their train of thoughts.</p><p>This inner monologue has two components: ruminating and worrying.</p>
Ruminating
<p>According to the late Susan Nolen-Hoeksema, a professor of psychology at Yale University, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5796420/" target="_blank">ruminating</a> involves replaying a problem over and over in your mind. We ruminate by obsessing over our thoughts and thinking repetitively about various aspects of a past situation.</p><p>It usually involves regret, self-loathing and self-blaming. Rumination is associated with the development of depression, anxiety and eating disorders. </p><p>People prone to such patterns of thought may, for example, overanalyze every single detail of a relationship that breaks up. They often blame themselves for what has happened and are overcome with regret, with typical thoughts being: </p><p>- I should have been more patient and more supportive. </p><p>- I have lost the most perfect partner ever. </p><p>- No one will love me again.</p>Worrying
<p>Worrying is wanting to predict the future. It involves negative thoughts about things that might and might not happen.</p><p>- They'll not like me in the interview; they'll not give me the job. </p><p>- I haven't heard back from other employers. How long will I be unemployed?</p><p>These thoughts are energy-draining and distressing. They could happen to anyone under stress. But when you reach the point where your thoughts and worrying are preventing you from doing what you want to do — from living your life to the fullest — then you should take action.</p>Catch Yourself Overthinking
<p>Reuben Berger, a psychotherapist at the university hospital in the western German city of Bonn, recommends several practical steps that you could employ in your daily routine when you catch yourself worrying or ruminating.</p><p>One effective remedy, says Berger, is the <a href="https://www.uofmhealth.org/health-library/uf9938" target="_blank">thought-stopping technique.</a></p><p>"When the negative thoughts come or ruminations start, you say to yourself: 'Stop!,'" he says, adding that it is more effective when you actually say the word out loud.</p><p>He even recommends having a rubber band around your wrist to ping against yourself while saying the word. Adding a visual component by imagining a stop sign also makes the technique more powerful, he says.</p><p>The main idea here is conditioning yourself to stop the loop of worrying (making future predictions) or rumination (obsessing over past events).</p><p>Berger says the technique could take up to two weeks to take effect and that it needs to be practiced every day. "Consistency is very important," he says. </p>Thoughts Are Just Thoughts
<p>Another way of dealing with negative thoughts often used in modern therapy is realizing that thoughts aren't facts, says Berger.</p><p>He says it is important when we think something to ask: Is that real? Did that really happen? What is the worst thing that could happen?</p><p>Flight anxiety is one example where untrue thoughts are accepted as facts. Although air travel is the safest way to get around, people suffering from fear of flying accept their thoughts and fears as reality, then act upon them by refusing to fly.</p>Mindfulness
<p>Berger also recommends the use of mindfulness techniques, in which attention is paid to experiences in the moment without judging them, as a way of reducing worrying.</p><p>"Mindfulness helps you to distance yourself from your thoughts and to be more present in the moment," he says.</p><p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3432145/#R2" target="_blank">Several studies</a> have shown that mindfulness has a positive impact on reducing stress-related behaviors such as rumination and worrying, as focusing on the moment makes anxiety about other problems impossible.</p><p>Mindfulness can be practiced during routine activities by paying attention to your body and your surroundings. For instance, when you leave for work in the morning, you can focus on sensing the breeze, listen attentively to birds, feel the gravel under your feet and monitor your breath. </p>Trick Your Brain Into Happiness
<p>People plagued by obsessive thoughts do not always choose healthy ways like mindfulness to distract from them, however.</p><p> Dr. Edward Selby, a psychologist at Florida state university, has shown in a study that people try to avoid rumination by engaging in a range of uncontrolled behaviors, such as binge eating and substance abuse.</p><p>But he says that a much better way to overcome such distress is by distraction and shifting attention away from problems that are obsessing us.</p><p>There are many activities that can be used to distract from rumination, he says, and people should choose the one that works best for them. Here are some examples:</p><p>- Listen to music</p><p>- Read a book</p><p>- Take a hot shower</p><p>- Dance or exercise </p><p>- Talk to a friend (not about the problem)</p><p>- Watch a movie</p><p>- Mindfulness meditation</p>Changing the Perception of Events
<p>The way people perceive a situation largely influences their emotions and behavior. It is not the situation itself that determines how they feel, but rather the way they interpret it.</p><p>Reframing negative thoughts can lead to positive emotions and, subsequently, healthier behaviors — including a reduction in damaging overthinking and worrying.</p><p>Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is currently a gold standard in psychotherapy. CBT aims to change the way people think and act. It largely involves challenging unhelpful beliefs or attitudes such as overgeneralization — thinking "I always fail at public speaking" when you have had one bad experience in front of an audience, for example — or "catastrophization," i.e., imagining the worst possible outcome to a situation. </p><p>A psychotherapist can teach people how to implement such thought-changing techniques into their lives. Techniques vary depending on their issues and goals.</p>Solutions Are at Hand
<p>Try to find ways of avoiding worrying, rumination and overthinking that make you feel most comfortable.</p><p>Incorporating any routine in your life when you're stressed isn't an easy task, but you can do it! If you feel overwhelmed, you can always seek professional help. </p><p><em>If you are suffering from serious emotional strain or suicidal thoughts, do not hesitate to seek professional help. You can find information on where to find such help, no matter where you live in the world, <a href="https://www.befrienders.org/" target="_blank">at this website.</a></em></p>From Your Site Articles
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A newly developed catalyst would transform carbon dioxide from power plants and other sources into ethanol. DWalker44 / E+ / Getty Images
Researchers at the Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory have discovered a cheap, efficient way to convert carbon dioxide into liquid fuel, potentially reducing the amount of new carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere.
<p>The method, published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0666-x" target="_blank">Nature Energy in late July</a>, uses a copper-based catalyst to transform carbon dioxide into ethanol, which is used in almost all U.S. gasoline.</p><p>"The process resulting from our catalyst would contribute to the circular carbon economy, which entails the reuse of carbon dioxide," study coauthor and Argonne senior chemist Di-Jia Liu explained in a <a href="https://www.anl.gov/article/turning-carbon-dioxide-into-liquid-fuel" target="_blank">press release</a>.</p>
<p>Catalysts are an important tool in industrial processes used to speed up chemical reactions, Argonne National Laboratory explained. In conventional energy, they are used to convert heavy <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oil" target="_self">oil</a> into jet fuel and gasoline. The new catalyst would be put to less carbon-intensive purposes by converting the carbon dioxide emitted by <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuel" target="_self">fossil-fuel</a> plants or alcohol fermentation into ethanol that could be either recycled as fuel or used to make chemicals, drugs or cosmetics. Liquid fuel can also be used to store the output from <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy/" target="_self">renewable energy</a> for future use, the paper explained.</p>
<p>In a 2019 <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/11/13/20839531/climate-change-industry-co2-carbon-capture-utilization-storage-ccu" target="_blank">deep-dive for Vox</a> on different potential uses of carbon dioxide, David Roberts pointed out that it is always better from a <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a> standpoint to electrify energy use directly rather than using that power to convert carbon dioxide into fuel. However, carbon-based fuels could be an important tool for reducing the emissions of sectors that are hard to decarbonize otherwise, like industry. They do not remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but they do reduce the amount of planet-warming emissions relative to what they would have been if conventional fuels were burned.</p><p>"Carbon-neutral liquid fuels for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize are both a large market and a key piece of the decarbonization puzzle," Roberts wrote.</p>
<p>But turning carbon dioxide into a different molecule is typically both energy intensive and expensive because carbon dioxide is so stable, according to the Argonne National Laboratory: The new catalyst, however, is highly efficient.</p><p>The lab explained how it works:</p><blockquote>The team's catalyst consists of atomically dispersed copper on a carbon-powder support. By an electrochemical reaction, this catalyst breaks down CO2 and water molecules and selectively reassembles the broken molecules into ethanol under an external electric field. The electrocatalytic selectivity, or "Faradaic efficiency," of the process is over 90 percent, much higher than any other reported process. What is more, the catalyst operates stably over extended operation at low voltage.</blockquote><p>Because the process can work at low pressures and temperatures, it can be paired with renewable energy technologies. This is because it will be able to stop and restart easily in response to a changing power supply.</p><p>"We could couple the electrochemical process of CO2-to-ethanol conversion using our catalyst to the electric grid and take advantage of the low-cost electricity available from renewable sources like <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/solar-energy" target="_self">solar</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/wind" target="_self">wind</a> during off-peak hours," Liu said.</p>
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Eureka Sound on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic taken by NASA's Operation IceBridge in 2014. NASA / Michael Studinger / Flickr / CC by 2.0
A 4,000-year-old ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed into the sea, leaving Canada without any fully intact ice shelves, Reuters reported. The Milne Ice Shelf lost more than 40 percent of its area in just two days at the end of July, said researchers who monitored its collapse.
<p>Unlike glaciers, ice shelves are part of the ocean.</p><p>The Milne Ice Shelf on Ellesmere Island in Canada's Nunavut territory fell into the Arctic Sea and started to drift before breaking into two large chunks. The Copernicus Sentinel satellite captured the entire event, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/08/weather/canada-ice-shelf-collapse-milne-manhattan/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p><p>Time-lapse photos on <a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/status/1290740808170307584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1290740808170307584%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2020%2F08%2F08%2Fweather%2Fcanada-ice-shelf-collapse-milne-manhattan%2Findex.html" target="_blank">Twitter</a> show the satellite animation between July 30 and August 4, as the ice shelf lost approximately 43 percent of its area. When the fallen pieces split in two, the larger one formed an iceberg roughly the size of Manhattan, according to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canada-last-fully-intact-ice-shelf-suddenly-collapsed-2020-8" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>. </p>
<div id="3f778" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="26a7b2ea20a9cef68bf0d6e1c029fe5d"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290740808170307584" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Satellite animation, from July 30 to August 4, shows the collapse of the last fully intact #iceshelf in #Canada. Th… https://t.co/n35ctDfmRh</div> — ECCC Canadian Ice Service (@ECCC Canadian Ice Service)<a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/statuses/1290740808170307584">1596571564.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p><br>The massive break was first noticed by ice analyst Adrienne White of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/ice-forecasts-observations/latest-conditions.html" target="_blank">Canadian Ice Service</a>, the <a href="https://apnews.com/8077f82701c655ddebc6aafbb3dd453e" target="_blank">AP</a> reported.</p><p>"This is a huge, huge block of ice," White told the AP. "If one of these is moving toward an oil rig, there's nothing you can really do aside from move your oil rig."</p><p>The break resulted from polar amplification, which causes the Arctic to warm faster than the rest of the world, Business Insider reported. For example, today's polar ice caps are melting six times faster than in the 1990s.</p><p>"Above normal air temperatures, offshore winds and open water in front of the ice shelf are all part of the recipe for ice shelf break up," the Canadian Ice Service said on <a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/status/1290045576692658176" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, according to Reuters.</p>
<div id="48af7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a601f615c13348682918cf9a52f9593b"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290045576692658176" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A huge section of the Milne #IceShelf has collapsed into the #Arctic Ocean producing a ~79 km2 ice island. Above no… https://t.co/RLLl5NjFy9</div> — ECCC Canadian Ice Service (@ECCC Canadian Ice Service)<a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/statuses/1290045576692658176">1596405808.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>"Entire cities are that size. These are big pieces of ice," said Luke Copland, a glaciologist at the University of Ottawa and part of the research team studying the Milne Ice Shelf. He told Reuters that this summer the Canadian Arctic experienced temperatures about 5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 30-year average.</p><p>"Without a doubt, it's climate change," Copland told the AP, adding that the ice shelf is melting from both hotter air above and warmer water below. "The Milne was very special. It's an amazingly pretty location."</p><p>According to Business Insider, a research camp was lost when the shelf broke apart, as was the Northern Hemisphere's last known epishelf — a freshwater lake contained by an ice shelf.</p><p>"It is lucky that we were not on the ice shelf when this happened, our camp area and instruments were all destroyed in this event," Derek Mueller, a professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies at Carleton University, said in a <a href="https://wirl.carleton.ca/milne-ice-shelf-calving-event/" target="_blank">blog post</a>, CNN reported. His team's trip had been canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Now that a large chunk of the ice shelf has collapsed into the ocean, there is the potential for additional cracking and movement, the Water and Ice Research Laboratory (WIRL) said in a<a href="https://wirl.carleton.ca/research/ice/ice-shelves/calving-2020/" target="_blank"> press release</a>. The ice shelf is still unstable and further ice breaks are possible in the coming days and weeks, WIRL warned.</p><p>Ice shelves can help limit rising sea levels since they act like a dam, CNN reported. </p>
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Teachers and activists attend a protest hosted by Chicago Teachers Union in Chicago, Illinois on Aug. 3, 2020 to demand classroom safety measures as schools debate reopening. KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP via Getty Images
The coronavirus cases surging around the U.S. are often carried by kids, raising fears that the reopening of schools will be delayed and calling into question the wisdom of school districts that have reopened already.
<p>A new study found that more than 97,000 children around the country tested newly positive for the virus by the end of July, marking a 40 percent increase in the number of infected children, according to <a href="https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP%20and%20CHA%20-%20Children%20and%20COVID-19%20State%20Data%20Report%207.30.20%20FINAL.pdf" target="_blank" title="">a new report</a> from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/10/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-7910c8ff" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> reported.</p><p>The report says that at least 338,000 children had tested positive through July 30, meaning more than a quarter tested positive in just the two weeks between July 15 and the end of the month.</p>
<p>The eye-popping data that the medical organizations compiled comes during back-to-school season as health officials are trying to understand the effects of the virus on children and the role young people play in its spread. Some schools have begun welcoming crowds back to class and others have had to readjust their reopening plans in response to infections. North Paulding High School near Atlanta, Georgia <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/georgia-high-school-students-covid-2646917231.html" target="_self">made headlines for its packed hallways</a> and has abruptly shifted to online instruction after there were nine positive cases in the school — three among staff and six among students, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>.</p><p>The report cited data from 49 states, New York City, Washington, Puerto Rico and Guam, most of which defined children as younger than 19 years old, though some states defined children as only up to 14, while Alabama defined it as up to 24.</p>
<p>While children make up a small fraction of the number of positive coronavirus cases in the U.S., their portion is growing. According to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/09/study-coronavirus-cases-children-rise-sharply-second-half-july-with-more-than-97000-infections/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_virus-children-503am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, while children were only 2 percent of cases nationwide in April, they now account for 8.8 percent.</p><p>The numbers of children affected followed the national trend, with large upticks in the South and Southwest, and much smaller numbers in the Northeast, where the virus is much more in control. New York City, New Jersey and other Northeastern states had the lowest number of childhood infections, according to the report.</p><p>Seven out of 10 new pediatric cases were reported in southern and western states, according to the paper, as the The Washington Post reported. Northeastern states saw much more limited growth in children's cases. Arizona reported the most cases per 100,000 children, with more than 1,000 on July 30. Louisiana, South Carolina and Tennessee were the only other states with more than 800 cases per 100,000.</p>
<p>There were limitations, though, since the report did not include complete data from Texas or parts of New York State outside New York City, according to The New York Times. While they didn't have the highest overall numbers, Missouri, Oklahoma, Alaska, Nevada, Idaho and Montana were among the states with the highest percentage increases of child infections during that period, according to the report.</p><p>Vanderbilt University's Dr. Tina Hartert told <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-kids-school-children-coronavirus-in-person-instruction/" target="_blank">CBS News</a> that she hopes increased testing of children will help determine what role they play in transmission, as school districts around the country return to some form of school. She is leading a government-funded study that sent DIY testing kits to roughly 2,000 families.</p><p>"The kits are shipped to the families, they are taught how to collect these samples, and then the samples are sent back by the families to a central repository," she said.</p>
<p>Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City, the nation's largest school district, announced a return to in-person schooling in the fall and pledged officials "have worked incessantly to get this right," according to CBS News.</p><p>"They've looked at examples from all over the world of what will keep the school community safe, and they've made a series of choices of how to do things from the health and safety lens first, while also making sure we can educate our kids," he said in a Friday press conference.</p>
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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern holds up COVID-19 alert levels during a press conference at Parliament on March 21, 2020 in Wellington, New Zealand. Hagen Hopkins / Getty Images
By Michael Baker, Amanda Kvalsvig and Nick Wilson
On Sunday, New Zealand marked 100 days without community transmission of COVID-19.
<p>From the first known case imported into New Zealand on February 26 to the last case of community transmission detected on May 1, elimination took 65 days.</p><p>New Zealand relied on three types of measures to get rid of the virus:</p><ol><li>ongoing border controls to stop COVID-19 from entering the country</li><li>a lockdown and physical distancing to stop community transmission</li><li>case-based controls using testing, contact tracing and quarantine.</li></ol><p>Collectively, these measures have achieved low case numbers and deaths compared with high-income countries in Europe and North America that pursued a suppression strategy.</p>
Deaths From COVID-19 Per Million Population
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzU0ODIyOS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MjkzMDc1OX0.7Yp1h1hokihlMJUurDukGmq-Y8NJB0V-07O1ukEjGt0/img.png?width=980" id="0fe6a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6bce85a610aee18e2f4f1c1caca7b8a0" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>New Zealand is one of a small number of jurisdictions – including mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia, Australia and Fiji – pursuing COVID-19 containment or elimination. Most have had new outbreaks. The exceptions are Taiwan, Mongolia, Fiji and New Zealand.</p><p>Australia adopted very similar responses to the pandemic and it is important to note that most states and territories are in the same position as New Zealand. But Victoria and, to a lesser extent, New South Wales are seeing a significant resurgence.</p><p>The key difference is that New Zealand committed relatively early to a <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/new-zealands-elimination-strategy-for-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-what-is-required-to-make-it-work" target="_blank">clearly articulated elimination strategy</a> and pursued it aggressively. An intense lockdown proved highly effective at rapidly extinguishing the virus.</p><p>This difference can be seen graphically in this stringency index published by Oxford University's <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&country=%7ENZL" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a>.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzU0ODI0MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMjA0NDE0Nn0.bBkzjOhDuT0UNdO_vBpY61-R6NjX6HfVPy-PvSyJ0bA/img.jpg?width=980" id="eb928" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="4fa0d0abf36e31893cce97e116887fa0" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>There are key lessons from New Zealand's COVID-19 experience.</p><p>A vigorous, decisive response to the pandemic was highly effective at minimizing cases and deaths. New Zealand has the <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/07/22/nzs-team-of-5-million-has-achieved-the-lowest-covid-19-death-rate-in-the-oecd-but-there-are-still-gaps-in-our-pandemic-response/" target="_blank">lowest COVID-19 death rate in the OECD</a>.</p><p>Total all-cause deaths also <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/07/10/weekly-deaths-declined-in-nzs-lockdown-but-we-still-dont-know-exactly-why/" target="_blank">dropped during the lockdown</a>. This observation suggests it did not have severe negative effects on health, although it will almost certainly have some negative long-term effects.</p><p>Elimination of the virus appears to have allowed New Zealand to return to near-normal operation fairly rapidly, and <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/maximizing-probability-6-week-lock-down-victoria-delivers-covid-19-free-australia" target="_blank">minimized economic damage</a> compared with Australia. But the economic impact is likely to keep playing out over the coming months.</p>
<div id="77fff" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="ce7b34f8986d3d36bee5d4d83ac0822c"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1292270210238447616" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">COVID-19 Update There are no new cases of COVID-19 to report in New Zealand today. It has been 100 days since t… https://t.co/Cz55ixGZUz</div> — Unite against COVID-19 (@Unite against COVID-19)<a href="https://twitter.com/covid19nz/statuses/1292270210238447616">1596936201.0</a></blockquote></div>
Getting Through the Pandemic
<p>We have gained a much better understanding of COVID-19 over the past eight months. Without effective control measures, it is likely to continue to spread globally for many months to years, ultimately infecting billions and killing millions. The proportion of infected people who die appears to be <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4" target="_blank">slightly below 1%</a>.</p><p>This infection also causes serious <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2815" target="_blank">long-term consequences</a> for some survivors. The largest uncertainties involve <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5" target="_blank">immunity to this virus</a>, whether it can develop from exposure to infection or vaccines, and if it is long-lasting. The potential for treatment with antivirals and other therapeutics is also still uncertain.</p><p>This knowledge reinforces the huge benefits of sustaining elimination. We know that if New Zealand were to experience widespread COVID-19 transmission, the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310086/" target="_blank">impact on Māori and Pasifika populations</a> could be catastrophic.</p><p>We have previously described critical measures to get us through this period, including the use of fabric face masks, improving contact tracing with suitable digital tools, applying a science-based approach to border management, and the need for a dedicated national public health agency.</p><p>Maintaining elimination depends on adopting a highly strategic approach to risk management. This approach involves choosing an optimal mix of interventions and using resources in the most efficient way to keep the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks at a consistently low level. Several measures can contribute to this goal over the next few months, while also allowing incremental increases in international travel:</p><ul><li>resurgence planning for a border-control failure and outbreaks of various sizes, with state-of-the-art contact tracing and an upgraded alert level system</li><li>ensuring all New Zealanders own a <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/mass-masking-an-alternative-to-a-second-lockdown-in-aotearoa" target="_blank">re-useable fabric face mask</a> with their <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12354409" target="_blank">use built into the alert level system</a></li><li>conducting exercises and simulations to test outbreak management procedures, possibly including "mass masking days" to engage the public in the response</li><li>carefully exploring processes to allow <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/06/16/preventing-outbreaks-of-covid-19-in-nz-associated-with-air-travel-from-australia-new-modelling-study-of-alternatives-to-quarantine/" target="_blank">quarantine-free travel</a> between jurisdictions free of COVID-19, notably various Pacific Islands, Tasmania and Taiwan (which may require digital tracking of arriving travellers for the first few weeks)</li><li>planning for carefully managed inbound travel by key long-term visitor groups such as tertiary students who would generally still need managed quarantine.</li></ul>Building Back Better
<p>New Zealand cannot change the reality of the global COVID-19 pandemic. But it can leverage possible benefits.</p><p>We should conduct an <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/06/11/five-key-reasons-why-nz-should-have-an-official-inquiry-into-the-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/" target="_blank">official inquiry into the COVID-19 response</a> so we learn everything we possibly can to improve our response capacity for future events.</p><p>We also need to establish a specialized national public health agency to <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2017/12/20/the-havelock-north-drinking-water-inquiry-a-wake-up-call-to-rebuild-public-health-in-new-zealand/" target="_blank">manage serious threats to public health</a> and provide critical mass to <a href="https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/02/05/a-preventable-measles-epidemic-lessons-for-reforming-public-health-in-nz/" target="_blank">advance public health generally</a>. Such an agency appears to have been a key factor in the success of Taiwan, which avoided a costly lockdown entirely.</p><p>Business as usual should not be an option for the recovery phase. A recent <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12353555" target="_blank">Massey University survey</a> suggests seven out of ten New Zealanders support a green recovery approach.</p><p>New Zealand's elimination of COVID-19 has drawn attention worldwide, with a description just <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025203" target="_blank">published</a> in the New England Journal of Medicine. We support a rejuvenated World Health Organization that can provide improved global leadership for pandemic prevention and control, including greater use of an elimination approach to combat COVID-19.</p>From Your Site Articles
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Medics with Austin-Travis County EMS transport a nursing home resident with coronavirus symptoms on Aug. 3, 2020 in Austin, Texas. John Moore / Getty Images
The U.S. passed five million coronavirus cases on Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, just 17 days after it hit the four-million case mark.
<p>The number means the U.S. now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than Ireland and Alabama have people, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/09/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html" target="_blank">CNN pointed out</a>.</p><p>"This is such a sobering number," Vanderbilt University infectious disease professor Dr. William Schaffner told CNN. "That's a huge number of cases and a very large number of hospitalizations and deaths — and more to come. Because over much of this country, this virus is spreading unimpeded because so many folks are not getting with the program to contain it."</p>
<div id="90895" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="fcbe6d202c937d5a692acf1d24d955ac"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1292590334577381376" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">It took:
- 99 days to get to 1 million cases
- 43 more days to reach 2 million
- 28 more days to reach 3 million… https://t.co/nBBhEo7ZE3</div> — Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈)<a href="https://twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/statuses/1292590334577381376">1597012525.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The U.S. continues to lead the world with both cases and deaths. It accounts for about a quarter of global cases and 22 percent of global fatalities, according to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/09/900640397/u-s-hits-5-million-coronavirus-cases-as-debate-lingers-over-the-path-forward" target="_blank">NPR</a>. The country has seen 162,938 deaths so far, according to Monday morning figures from <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html" target="_blank">Johns Hopkins University</a>. The next hardest-hit country, Brazil, has confirmed more than three million cases and 100,000 deaths.</p><p>The U.S. response to the virus has been marked by President <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/donald-trump" target="_self">Donald Trump</a>'s <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/coronavirus-infections-trump-2645393552.html" target="_self">repeated dismissals</a> of the severity of the new disease, pushing of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/trump-coronavirus-medicine-science-2645823308.html" target="_self">unproven treatments</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/doctor-bright-coronavirus-trump-drug-2645811981.html" target="_self">clashes</a> with <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/public-health" target="_self">public health</a> experts, <a href="https://apnews.com/2a03a4e685316eb7d5a6e7181000fbfe" target="_blank">The Associated Press pointed out</a>.</p><p>This has diminished the image of the U.S. in Europe, where officials are surprised the country could not manage to curb the outbreak despite having more preparation time before the disease began to spread rapidly on U.S. soil.</p><p>"We Italians always saw America as a model," Corriere della Sera columnist Massimo Franco said, according to The Associated Press. "But with this virus we've discovered a country that is very fragile, with bad infrastructure and a public health system that is nonexistent."</p>
<p>The U.S. is currently reporting around 54,000 cases a day. That is down from a mid-July peak of 75,697, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/08/world/coronavirus-updates.html#link-697eb3e1" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. Still, cases are increasing in almost 20 states, according to The Associated Press, and deaths are increasing in most.</p><p>On a national level, the U.S. has reported more than 1,000 deaths a day for the last five days, and has only reported fewer than 1,000 deaths on four days since July 21.</p><p>More than 40 percent of U.S. cases have been reported in just five states: California, Florida, Texas, New York and Georgia.</p>
<p>New York, however, which was an early epicenter of the outbreak, has largely gotten the disease under control. Its Saturday positivity rate — the rate of positive results out of total coronavirus tests — was 0.78 percent, the lowest since the pandemic started.</p><p>"Our daily numbers remain low and steady, despite increasing infection rates across the country, and even in our region — and we had the lowest one-day positive rate since we started," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a statement reported by CNN. "That's an incredible achievement, all thanks to the hard work of New Yorkers."</p><p>The other states have not been so successful. Florida reported more than 6,000 new cases for the 13th day in a row Sunday and Texas reported its highest ever seven-day positivity rate, at 19.41 percent.</p><p>The states with the most new cases compared to their populations in the past week were Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi, The New York Times reported.</p><p>Meanwhile, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicted the U.S. would see 300,000 coronavirus deaths by December, NPR reported. That would make COVID-19 the third leading cause of death in the country this year.</p>
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