African Nations Are Losing up to 5% of Annual GDP Due to Climate Change, WMO Finds

A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report has found that African countries are losing a disproportionate amount — an average of two to five percent — of their annual gross domestic product (GDP) due to climate change.

Many of these countries are using as much as nine percent of their national budgets to respond to climate extremes, a press release from WMO said.

“Over the past 60 years, Africa has observed a warming trend that has become more rapid than the global average. In 2023, the continent experienced deadly heatwaves, heavy rains, floods, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts,” said Celeste Saulo, WMO secretary-general, in the press release. “While many countries in the Horn of Africa, southern and North-West Africa continued to suffer exceptional multi-year drought, other countries experienced extreme precipitation events in 2023 leading to flooding with significant casualties. These extreme events led to devastating impacts on communities, with serious economic implications.”

Adaptation costs for these events is projected to be from $30 to $50 billion each year over the coming decade — two to three percent of the GDP for the region — according to the State of the Climate in Africa 2023 report.

It is estimated that, by the end of the decade, as many as 118 million of those who are extremely poor — getting by on less than $1.90 each day — will be exposed to floods, extreme heat and drought in Africa if no adequate response measures are put in place. This will mean added burdens on efforts to alleviate poverty, as well as significant obstruction to growth, the report said.

“This pattern of extreme weather has continued in 2024. Parts of southern Africa have been gripped by damaging drought. Exceptional seasonal rainfall has caused death and devastation in East African countries, most recently in Sudan and South Sudan. This exacerbates an already desperate humanitarian crisis,” Saulo said in the press release.

African nations must make accelerated implementation of the Early Warnings For All initiative and increased investment in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services a priority to save the lives of people and their livelihoods. The report said this will help mitigate risks; bolster resilience at national, regional and local levels; build adaptive capacity; and guide strategies for sustainable development.

The report — a supplement to WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2023 — focuses on climate change impacts and indicators in 2023, the hottest year ever recorded.

“The State of Climate in Africa 2023 Report highlights the urgent need for investing in meteorological services and early warning systems to help adapt to climate change and build resilience in Africa. As the impacts of climate change continue to manifest globally, the African continent stands at a critical juncture,” said H.E. Ambassador Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko, African Union Commission’s commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment, in the press release.

Between 1991 and 2023, Africa warmed slightly faster than the global average — roughly 0.3 degrees Celsius each decade. The warming trend has been fastest in North Africa — approximately 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade, compared with a rate of 0.2 degrees from 1961 to 1990 — and lowest in Southern Africa at roughly 0.2 degrees per decade from 1991 to 2023.

The continent’s highest temperature anomalies last year were recorded in northwestern Africa, particularly in coastal Mauritania, Morocco and northwest Algeria.

Several countries reported having their warmest year ever recorded, including Morocco, Uganda, Mali and the United Republic of Tanzania. July and August brought extreme heat waves to northern Africa, with Tunisia’s capital city of Tunis reaching a record 120.2 degrees Fahrenheit, and Agadir, Morocco, recording a new record high of 122.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Areas of Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia, Zambia and Zimbabwe experienced severe drought last year. The worst drought in four decades hit Zambia, affecting eight of ten provinces and roughly six million people.

Early May 2023 saw severe flooding and landslides on the border of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, with 574 reported fatalities.

At least 4,700 deaths were confirmed in Libya from flooding after Mediterranean cyclone Storm Daniel hit in September, with 8,000 people still reported as missing.

Flooding affected roughly 300,000 people across 10 nations in September and October, with the greatest impacts felt in Benin, Ghana, Niger and Nigeria.

The development of climate resilience in Africa requires investing in early warning systems and hydrometeorological infrastructure to prepare for the escalation of high-impact disasters. Investments in Africa’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are necessary to improve forecasting capabilities and enhance data collection to bolster the ability of institutions to issue advisories and early warnings for extreme events. Investments in state-of-the-art systems and technologies to enhance lead time and accuracy of climate, weather and hydrological forecasts are especially needed.

From 1970 to 2021, 35 percent of climate, weather and water-related deaths occurred in Africa, but just 40 percent of the population has early warning system access — the lowest rate on the planet.

In September of last year, an Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa was launched with the main objective of ensuring that accurate and timely information regarding impending disasters and natural hazards reaches all parts of African society, especially those who are most vulnerable. The warning action plan responds to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres’ call for every person on the planet to have early warning system protection by 2027.

“Africa faces disproportionate burdens and risks arising from climate change related weather events and patterns, which cause massive humanitarian crises with detrimental impacts on agriculture, and food security, education, energy, infrastructure, peace, and security, public health, water resources, and overall socio-economic development,” Sacko said in the press release.