2024 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record and First Above 1.5°C, EU Scientists Say

According to new data from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 will be the planet’s warmest ever recorded, as well as the first above the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The European Union’s climate monitor found that the planet’s average surface temperature for November was 1.62 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average. With 11 months of data for 2024 now available, scientists have said that the global average temperature for the year is projected to be 1.60 degrees Celsius, which would break the record of 1.48 degrees Celsius set last year, reported The Guardian.

“With Copernicus data in from the penultimate month of the year, we can now confirm with virtual certainty that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first calendar year above 1.5°C. This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever,” said C3S Deputy Director Samantha Burgess, according to the climate service.

November was the second-warmest ever recorded globally after November of 2023. The average temperature was 14.10 degrees Celsius — 0.73 degrees Celsius higher than the November average for the period 1991 to 2020.

This November was the 16th month out of the last 17 with an average worldwide surface air temperature of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

From September to November — boreal autumn — the global average temperature was the second highest ever recorded behind 2023 at 0.75 degrees Celsius above the monthly average for 1991 to 2020.

November’s average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions also clocked in as the second highest behind November of 2023, with a difference of just 0.13 degrees Celsius.

Antarctic sea ice was 10 percent below average in November, reaching its lowest monthly extent. This was slightly below 2016 and 2023 levels.

November’s Arctic sea ice extent was the third lowest on record at nine percent below average.

In order for the global average temperature to be kept below 1.5 degrees Celsius, fossil fuel emissions must be reduced by 45 percent by the end of the decade, The Guardian reported.

Extreme weather caused by the climate crisis has been increasing the frequency and intensity of storms across the globe, along with heat waves, drought and flooding.

“The scale of some of the fires in 2024 were at historic levels, especially in Bolivia, the Pantanal and parts of the Amazon. Canadian wildfires were again extreme although not at the record scale of 2023,” said Mark Parrington, senior scientist with the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), as reported by The Guardian.