Quantcast

2016 Forecasted to Be the Hottest Year Ever Recorded

Climate

So you thought December was unusually warm? Well, ditch that sweater because 2016 is forecasted to be the hottest year ever recorded.

According to the UK Met Office, the global average temperature for next year is expected to be between 0.72 C and 0.96 C above the long-term (between 1961-1990) average of 14 C.

2016 is forecast to be the hottest year ever recorded. Photo credit: David Mills / Flickr

There is just a 5 percent chance that 2016 will be below the 2015 global average temperature, the Met Office said.

“2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record and this forecast suggests 2016 is likely to be at least as warm, if not warmer," Professor Chris Folland, Met Office research fellow, said.

As the Met Office explained, human-induced climate change and a “smaller effect” from El Niño caused by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are the main drivers within its forecast.

“The Met Office’s 2016 forecast is certainly dramatic and, if realized, would be towards the upper end of the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their most recent assessment report,” Ed Hawkins, an associate professor at the University of Reading, told Carbon Brief.

Three Years in a Row

This year has already surpassed 2014 as the hottest year on record. With this new 2016 forecast, that potentially makes three consecutive years where the global average temperature rises.

“This forecast suggests that by the end of 2016 we will have seen three record or near-record, years in a row for global temperatures,” Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said.

And as the Met Office press statement reads: “The Met Office doesn't expect this run of back-to-back records continue indefinitely, but the current situation shows how global warming can combine with smaller, natural fluctuations to push our climate to levels of warmth which are unprecedented in the data records.”

Paris Agreement

This forecast came just days after 195 nations agreed a historic deal to tackle climate change at the UN Paris climate summit, COP21. There, they agreed to keep the world’s temperature rise under 2 C, with the aim to minimize it to 1.5 C.

However, as the Met Office forecast shows, the global average temperature in 2016 is expected to be 1.14 C above pre-industrial temperatures. And in 2015 the world already surpassed the critical 1 C threshold.

All of this demonstrates just how challenging it will be to meet the ambitious 1.5 C target agreed in Paris. Perhaps some stronger New Year’s resolutions are needed to build upon the Paris Agreement.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

Watch 25 Years of Arctic Sea Ice Melt in One Minute

10 Foods That Could Disappear Because of Climate Change

15 Big Climate News Stories of 2015

Michael Mann: How Close Are We to ‘Dangerous’ Planetary Warming?

EcoWatch Daily Newsletter


tommaso79 / iStock / Getty Images Plus

By Rachel Licker

As a new mom, I've had to think about heat safety in many new ways since pregnant women and young children are among the most vulnerable to extreme heat.

Read More Show Less
Pexels

By Kris Gunnars, BSc

It's easy to get confused about which foods are healthy and which aren't.

Read More Show Less
Sponsored
Golde Wallingford submitted this photo of "Pure Joy" to EcoWatch's first photo contest. Golde Wallingford

EcoWatch is pleased to announce our third photo contest!

Read More Show Less
Maximum heat indices expected in the continental U.S. on Saturday July 20. NOAA WPC

A dangerous heat wave is expected to boil much of the Central and Eastern U.S. beginning Wednesday, The Washington Post reported.

Read More Show Less
Retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, who was appointed by President Gerald Ford in 1975, was presented with the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Barack Obama on May 29, 2012. MANDEL NGAN / AFP / GettyImages

John Paul Stevens, the retired Supreme Court Justice who wrote the opinion granting environmental agencies the power to regulate greenhouse gases, died Tuesday at the age of 99. His decision gave the U.S. government important legal tools for fighting the climate crisis.

Read More Show Less
Sponsored
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler signs the so-called Affordable Clean Energy rule on June 19, replacing the Obama-era Clean Power Plan that would have reduced coal-fired plant carbon emissions. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency / Twitter

By Elliott Negin

On July 8, President Trump hosted a White House event to unabashedly tout his truly abysmal environmental record. The following day, coincidentally, marked the one-year anniversary of Andrew Wheeler at the helm of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), first as acting administrator and then as administrator after the Senate confirmed him in late February.

Read More Show Less
A timber sale in the Kaibab National Forest. Dyan Bone / Forest Service / Southwestern Region / Kaibab National Forest

By Tara Lohan

If you're a lover of wilderness, wildlife, the American West and the public lands on which they all depend, then journalist Christopher Ketcham's new book is required — if depressing — reading.

Read More Show Less
Somalians fight against hunger and lack of water due to drought as Turkish Ambassador to Somalia, Olgan Bekar (not seen) visits the a camp near the Mogadishu's rural side in Somalia on March 25, 2017. Sadak Mohamed / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images

World hunger is on the rise for the third consecutive year after decades of decline, a new United Nations (UN) report says. The climate crisis ranks alongside conflict as the top cause of food shortages that force more than 821 million people worldwide to experience chronic hunger. That number includes more than 150 million children whose growth is stunted due to a lack of food.

Read More Show Less