Quantcast
Environmental News for a Healthier Planet and Life

Help Support EcoWatch

2016 Forecasted to Be the Hottest Year Ever Recorded

Climate

So you thought December was unusually warm? Well, ditch that sweater because 2016 is forecasted to be the hottest year ever recorded.

According to the UK Met Office, the global average temperature for next year is expected to be between 0.72 C and 0.96 C above the long-term (between 1961-1990) average of 14 C.

2016 is forecast to be the hottest year ever recorded. Photo credit: David Mills / Flickr

There is just a 5 percent chance that 2016 will be below the 2015 global average temperature, the Met Office said.

“2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record and this forecast suggests 2016 is likely to be at least as warm, if not warmer," Professor Chris Folland, Met Office research fellow, said.

As the Met Office explained, human-induced climate change and a “smaller effect” from El Niño caused by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are the main drivers within its forecast.

“The Met Office’s 2016 forecast is certainly dramatic and, if realized, would be towards the upper end of the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their most recent assessment report,” Ed Hawkins, an associate professor at the University of Reading, told Carbon Brief.

Three Years in a Row

This year has already surpassed 2014 as the hottest year on record. With this new 2016 forecast, that potentially makes three consecutive years where the global average temperature rises.

“This forecast suggests that by the end of 2016 we will have seen three record or near-record, years in a row for global temperatures,” Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said.

And as the Met Office press statement reads: “The Met Office doesn't expect this run of back-to-back records continue indefinitely, but the current situation shows how global warming can combine with smaller, natural fluctuations to push our climate to levels of warmth which are unprecedented in the data records.”

Paris Agreement

This forecast came just days after 195 nations agreed a historic deal to tackle climate change at the UN Paris climate summit, COP21. There, they agreed to keep the world’s temperature rise under 2 C, with the aim to minimize it to 1.5 C.

However, as the Met Office forecast shows, the global average temperature in 2016 is expected to be 1.14 C above pre-industrial temperatures. And in 2015 the world already surpassed the critical 1 C threshold.

All of this demonstrates just how challenging it will be to meet the ambitious 1.5 C target agreed in Paris. Perhaps some stronger New Year’s resolutions are needed to build upon the Paris Agreement.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

Watch 25 Years of Arctic Sea Ice Melt in One Minute

10 Foods That Could Disappear Because of Climate Change

15 Big Climate News Stories of 2015

Michael Mann: How Close Are We to ‘Dangerous’ Planetary Warming?

EcoWatch Daily Newsletter

Workers clean up a crude oil leak from a pipeline in Minnesota in 2002. JOEY MCLEISTER / Star Tribune via Getty Images

The Trump administration has finalized a rule making it harder for states and tribal communities to block pipelines and other infrastructure projects that threaten waterways.

Read More Show Less
The Pile River flows into the northern end of Lake Iliamna. The lake and its tributaries are the headwaters of the Bristol Bay region, one of the richest salmon fisheries in the world. Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) wrote a letter to the Army Corps of Engineers last week to say that it would not oppose or put a stop to a huge copper and gold mine near the world's largest sockeye salmon fishery, as The Washington Post reported.

Read More Show Less
A crowd of protestors on May 31, 2020 in Washington, DC. Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images

The nationwide horror at the killing of George Floyd by the Minneapolis police has triggered protests in 75 cities. People are demonstrating against the systemic racism that has made people of color targets of lethal actions by law enforcement. In response, elected officials and public health experts are walking a fine line of affirming the rights of protestors while simultaneously worrying that the protests will lead to a new wave of coronavirus infections.

Read More Show Less
Increasing your exercise intensity is fairly simple to do. You can still participate in your favorite activities — just at a more vigorous pace. SrdjanPav / Getty Images

By Sara Lindberg

Whether you've hit a workout plateau or you're just ready to turn things up a notch, adding more strenuous exercise — also known as high-intensity exercise — to your overall fitness routine is one way to increase your calorie burn, improve your heart health, and boost your metabolism.

However, to do it safely and effectively, there are some guidelines you should follow. Keep reading to learn more about the benefits of vigorous exercise and how to safely dial up the intensity of your workouts.

Read More Show Less
As restoration managers repair damaged corals, sound recordings can help jumpstart the process of restoring vibrant – and noisy – coral reef ecosystems. CC by 2.0

A healthy coral reef is a noisy place.

Read More Show Less
While it's often dismissed as stuff for kids, a lot of grownups secretly savor it. TheCrimsonMonkey / Getty Images

By Jeffrey Miller

In January 2015, food sales at restaurants overtook those at grocery stores for the first time. Most thought this marked a permanent shift in the American meal.

Read More Show Less

Trending

A man observes the damages caused to his neighborhood from Tropical Storm Amanda on May 31, 2020 in San Salvador, El Salvador. Guillermo Martínez / APHOTOGRAFIA / Getty Images

At least 14 people were killed when Tropical Storm Amanda walloped El Salvador Sunday, Interior Minister Mario Duran said.

Read More Show Less